FluSight ILINet Forecasts:

MMWR Week 3, Forecasts Received 01/13/2020

National

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 29 - Jan 04), ILI was reported in 5.8% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 12 - Jan 18), there is a 36% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.8%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 12 - Jan 18), relative to week 1 (Dec 29 - Jan 04) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 57% and 25% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in February and December in 33% and 29% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 83% chance that ILI will peak between 6.3% and 8.1%, and about a 15% chance that ILI will peak above 8.1%.

HHS Region 1

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 3.9% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 55% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (3.9%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 59% and 33% chance that ILI will peak in February and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in February and January in 38% and 29% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 43% chance that ILI will peak between 4.6% and 6.6%, and about a 28% chance that ILI will peak above 6.6%.

Connecticut

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 41% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 44% and 30% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in February and December in 67% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Maine

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 3.4% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 29% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (3.4%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 36% and 20% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 33% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Massachusetts

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 4.1% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 34% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (4.1%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 44% and 25% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

New Hampshire

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 1.4% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 74% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (1.4%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 27% and 26% chance that ILI will peak in February and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and March in 33% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Rhode Island

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 2.9% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 64% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (2.9%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 35% and 29% chance that ILI will peak in February and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in February and December in 33% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Vermont

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 1.7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 77% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (1.7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 42% and 19% chance that ILI will peak in February and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and February in 33% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

HHS Region 2

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 50% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 46% and 43% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 33% and 24% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 59% chance that ILI will peak between 6.7% and 9.3%, and about a 37% chance that ILI will peak above 9.3%.

New Jersey

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 7.2% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 32% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (7.2%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 41% and 25% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and February in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

New York

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 45% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 34% and 33% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and February in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

New York City

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 7.1% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 23% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (7.1%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 45% and 20% chance that ILI will peak in January and December, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Puerto Rico

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 12.6% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 11% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (12.6%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 40% and 23% chance that ILI will peak in January and December, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 33% and 17% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Virgin Islands

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 2.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 45% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (2.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 25% and 19% chance that ILI will peak in December and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 25% and 0% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

HHS Region 3

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5.7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 34% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 36% and 31% chance that ILI will peak in February and December, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and February in 29% and 29% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 72% chance that ILI will peak between 4.6% and 7.3%, and about a 18% chance that ILI will peak between 7.3% and 9.6%.

Delaware

Disclaimer: Due to insufficient data, a reliable week 1 ILINet value can not calculated for Deleware at this time. As a result, we are not displaying forecasts for this state. Efforts to forecast ILI in Deleware should resume next week.

District of Columbia

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 4.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 46% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (4.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 37% and 23% chance that ILI will peak in December and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 40% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Maryland

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 6.6% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 27% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (6.6%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 31% and 26% chance that ILI will peak in December and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 40% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Pennsylvania

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 4.4% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 33% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (4.4%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 42% and 28% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 30% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Virginia

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 7.2% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 16% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (7.2%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 39% and 22% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 30% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

West Virginia

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 4.4% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 41% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (4.4%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 30% and 24% chance that ILI will peak in January and December, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 30% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

HHS Region 4

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 6.2% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 36% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (6.2%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 51% and 34% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 36% and 32% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 57% chance that ILI will peak between 6.5% and 8.3%, and about a 41% chance that ILI will peak above 8.3%.

Alabama

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 7.2% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 34% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (7.2%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 39% and 23% chance that ILI will peak in December and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 50% and 40% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Florida

Florida does not share its ILINet data through CDC’s FluView Interactive. Therefore, forecasts for Florida are unavailable. To view a summary of Florida’s ILINet data (along with viewing other available data on flu and ILI), please visit //www.floridahealth.gov/floridaflu or reach out to the Florida Department of Health directly at (850) 245-4444.

Georgia

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 9.4% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 26% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (9.4%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 50% and 18% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 50% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Kentucky

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 4.8% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 67% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (4.8%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 38% and 22% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 50% and 40% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Mississippi

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 6.6% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 32% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (6.6%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 47% and 17% chance that ILI will peak in December and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 40% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

North Carolina

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 4.7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 39% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (4.7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 32% and 24% chance that ILI will peak in February and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in February and December in 40% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

South Carolina

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 10% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 26% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (10%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 39% and 21% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 60% and 20% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Tennessee

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 11.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 16% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (11.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 44% and 18% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 40% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

HHS Region 5

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 3.6% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 46% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (3.6%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 54% and 30% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in February and December in 36% and 27% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 87% chance that ILI will peak between 3.9% and 6.5%, and about a 9% chance that ILI will peak between 6.5% and 8.8%.

Illinois

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 25% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 41% and 19% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 40% and 40% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Indiana

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 3.5% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 63% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (3.5%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 42% and 20% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 50% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Michigan

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 3.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 37% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (3.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 34% and 24% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 40% and 20% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Minnesota

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 3.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 68% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (3.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 41% and 22% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 40% and 20% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Ohio

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 2.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 60% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (2.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 38% and 31% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and February in 30% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Wisconsin

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 3.7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 37% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (3.7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 29% and 23% chance that ILI will peak in December and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 40% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

HHS Region 6

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 8.6% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 41% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (8.6%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 74% and 15% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 36% and 27% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 95% chance that ILI will peak between 10.8% and 13.6%, and about a 3% chance that ILI will peak between 7.3% and 10.8%.

Arkansas

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 4.2% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 60% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (4.2%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 37% and 22% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 40% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Louisiana

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 8.6% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 25% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (8.6%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 35% and 20% chance that ILI will peak in November and December, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 40% and 40% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

New Mexico

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 10.7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 12% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (10.7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 44% and 19% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 33% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Oklahoma

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 7.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 51% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (7.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 30% and 29% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Texas

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 9.1% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 41% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (9.1%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 50% and 18% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 56% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

HHS Region 7

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5.6% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 43% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.6%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 35% and 34% chance that ILI will peak in February and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 43% and 38% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 56% chance that ILI will peak between 4.2% and 7.4%, and about a 28% chance that ILI will peak between 7.4% and 10.4%.

Iowa

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 3.5% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 32% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (3.5%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 37% and 19% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Kansas

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 34% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 40% and 29% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and February in 33% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Missouri

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5.1% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 32% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.1%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 41% and 26% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 67% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Nebraska

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 8.6% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 33% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (8.6%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 40% and 19% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 44% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

HHS Region 8

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5.9% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 40% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.9%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 44% and 27% chance that ILI will peak in February and December, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and February in 33% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

Disclaimer: Due to the addition of new ILINet reporting sites, baseline ILI values have increased in recent seasons in HHS Region 8. As a result, peak ILI values can not be used as a reliable indicator of relative season severity at this time.

Colorado

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 6.7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 24% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (6.7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 37% and 22% chance that ILI will peak in December and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 44% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Montana

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 2.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 47% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (2.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 40% and 27% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 33% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

North Dakota

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 23% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 40% and 19% chance that ILI will peak in December and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 33% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

South Dakota

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 2.8% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 53% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (2.8%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 37% and 31% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in February and December in 56% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Utah

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 6.5% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 20% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (6.5%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 36% and 23% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Wyoming

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 3.7% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 52% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (3.7%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 40% and 23% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 40% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

HHS Region 9

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5.2% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 44% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.2%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 59% and 31% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 43% and 29% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 66% chance that ILI will peak between 4.7% and 6.5%, and about a 19% chance that ILI will peak between 6.5% and 7.9%.

Arizona

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 6.1% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 27% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (6.1%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 36% and 23% chance that ILI will peak in December and January, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

California

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5.3% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 22% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.3%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 46% and 22% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Hawaii

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 4.2% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 46% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (4.2%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 37% and 27% chance that ILI will peak in January and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 33% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Nevada

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 2.2% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 63% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (2.2%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 27% and 18% chance that ILI will peak in November and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 44% and 22% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

HHS Region 10

Region Overall

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5.5% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 31% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5.5%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 68% and 14% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 38% and 24% of seasons, respectively, from 1997-98 to 2018-19 (excluding 2009-10).

Peak Intensity

There is about a 82% chance that ILI will peak between 6.5% and 8.9%, and about a 15% chance that ILI will peak above 8.9%.

Alaska

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 48% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 45% and 16% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and March in 44% and 33% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Idaho

Disclaimer: Due to insufficient data, a reliable week 1 ILINet value can not calculated for Idaho at this time. As a result, we are not displaying forecasts for this state. Efforts to forecast ILI in Idaho should resume next week.

Oregon

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 5% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 23% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (5%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 45% and 15% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in January and December in 60% and 30% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Washington

Four-Week Change in ILI

Latest ILINet Data: In week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05), ILI was reported in 7.2% of outpatient visits.

% Chance of Increase/Decrease in ILI relative to Week 1:

During week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), there is a 19% chance that ILI visits will be higher than reported in week 1 (7.2%, the last observed value).

Short-Term Trajectory

The ILINet graph for the 2019-2020 season is below. Observed ILI% values are in black, while short term ILI forecasts are in green with the 80% prediction interval shaded.

Forecasts for All Locations

Forecasting the likelihood that ILI activity will increase or decrease in week 3 (Jan 13 - Jan 19), relative to week 1 (Dec 30 - Jan 05) activity, the most recent observation. Forecasts not available for Florida.

Peak Month Forecast

There is a 46% and 16% chance that ILI will peak in December and February, respectively.

Historical Peak Month

ILI peaked in December and January in 50% and 40% of seasons, respectively, from 2010-11 to 2018-19.

Background

Instructions for Reading the FluSight Dashboard:

• Selecting your location: At the top, click a tab corresponding to the national-level forecast view or one of the ten HHS regions. If you select the regional view, additional corresponding to the states within the specified region will appear.

• Four-week change in ILI (left): This section shows the forecasted probability that the ILI% (% of outpatient visits associated with influenza-like illness) will increase or decrease from the value most recently reported value over the subsequent four weeks.

• Short-Term Trajectory (middle-top): This curve shows the observed (black) ILI% values, the forecasted ILI% point predictions, and the 80% prediction interval of the ILI% for the next four weeks.

• Forecasts for All Locations (middle-bottom): This map shows, for all locations, the probability that the ILI% will increase or decrease in the current week from the most recently reported value. Forecasts are uncertain in the direction of change for locations in grey, while dark blue and red tiles indicate that forecast are confident in a decrease or increase, respectively.

• Peak/Historic Month Forecast (top-right): This section shows the forecasted probability that ILI% will peak in a given month. For comparison, the “Historic Peak Month” section shows the historical frequency of ILI% peaks by month.

• Peak Intensity: For the US overall and each HHS region, we’ve applied the moving epidemics method (MEM) to historic peak ILI% data to obtain thresholds which can be used to classify the severity of an influenza season according to the peak ILI% value. We show the probability that the peak ILI% will fall into each severity category, as well as how often each severity level has been observed historically since the 1997-98 season.

How CDC Forecasts Seasonal Influenza in the U.S.

The timing and severity of influenza in the United States can vary widely from season to season. Flu forecasting aims to predict the characteristics of influenza seasons before disease activity occurs and is captured by the U.S. influenza surveillance system. Since the 2013-2014 flu season, CDC’s Influenza Division and Epidemic Prediction Initiative have collaborated with external researchers on real-world influenza forecasting challenges known as FluSight. Recently, these challenges have been extended to state-level forecasting.

FluSight participants independently develop their approaches to prediction using a variety of data sources and methods, and submit forecasts to CDC on a weekly basis during the influenza season. The national and regional forecasts in this dashboard are based on the FluSightNetwork ensemble, which combines forecasts from a number of models on the basis of past performance. State-level forecasts in the dashboard are based on an unweighted average of all submitted predictions.

More information on the CDC’s influenza forecasting activities can be found here.