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Please post questions or discussion related to Modeling topics here.
Comments & Events
Stephen Pont
My understanding is that the White House is using the IHME model. Of note, the projections changed dramatically with yesterday's release, moving our peak up 3 weeks and saying that we have capacity. I very much hope that they are correct, it is a bit disconcerting how much the model can change from version to version. The IHME model n the FAQ it reports that the model assumes a 3% infection rate. This seems low, what do you think? As if this is low then then the reality of need will be much higher.
Notified 114 people
Balter
I don’t know how they come up with the infections rates especially since they can’t decide how much asymptomatic infection there is.
Also the amount of testing in say nyc is vastly higher than here where they diagnose more people than we are testing a day.
And some of it looking at nyc clearly has to do with underlying illness in the population. And how well people can and will adhere to distancing
For now our hospitals are not overwhelmed (though a couple of skilled nursing facilities ran out of staff)
Models are helpful but in the end just models and I think we have to plan for the worst case right now as other approaches have not really worked with this virus.
I know many states are working with their universities on modeling for resource needs within their state. For those that are doing this work, how is your state disseminating these projections? To whom are you disseminating these projections to? And, how are you messaging how to use these projections?
Laura Williamson Montana State Epi
Notified 116 people
Stephen Pont
Yes we are. Can’t write a super long email response to the details, but happy to chat by phone or set up a meeting w/ others with similar interests to discuss in greater detail.
Best regards,
Stephen Cell: 512-593-0163
Stephen Pont MD, MPH Texas Department of State Health Services Medical Director, Office of Science and Population Health Acting State Epidemiologist P.O. Box 149347 MC: 1911 Austin, TX 78714-9347 Office: (512) 776-7792 Fax: (512) 776-7177 Stephen.Pont@dshs.texas.gov
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Statement of Confidentiality: The contents of this e-mail message and any attachments are confidential and are intended solely for addressee. The information may also be legally privileged. This transmission is sent in trust, for the sole purpose of delivery to the intended recipient. If you have received this transmission in error, any use, reproduction or dissemination of this transmission is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please immediately notify the sender by reply e-mail or phone and delete this message and its attachments, if any.
We are asking them to take on the role of working with individual cities, counties, etc, so we don’t get overwhelmed; they worked to create a state model for us but we don’t want to get hammered with requests from so many jurisdictions. Looks like they will be agreeing to take on that role for the state!! Chris
Also the amount of testing in say nyc is vastly higher than here where they diagnose more people than we are testing a day.
And some of it looking at nyc clearly has to do with underlying illness in the population. And how well people can and will adhere to distancing
For now our hospitals are not overwhelmed (though a couple of skilled nursing facilities ran out of staff)
Models are helpful but in the end just models and I think we have to plan for the worst case right now as other approaches have not really worked with this virus.
Get Outlook for iOS<https://aka.ms/o0ukef>
I know many states are working with their universities on modeling for resource needs within their state. For those that are doing this work, how is your state disseminating these projections? To whom are you disseminating these projections to? And, how are you messaging how to use these projections?
Laura Williamson
Montana State Epi
Best regards,
Stephen
Cell: 512-593-0163
Stephen Pont MD, MPH
Texas Department of State Health Services
Medical Director, Office of Science and Population Health
Acting State Epidemiologist
P.O. Box 149347 MC: 1911
Austin, TX 78714-9347
Office: (512) 776-7792
Fax: (512) 776-7177
Stephen.Pont@dshs.texas.gov
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Statement of Confidentiality: The contents of this e-mail message and any attachments are confidential and are intended solely for addressee. The information may also be legally privileged. This transmission is sent in trust, for the sole purpose of delivery to the intended recipient. If you have received this transmission in error, any use, reproduction or dissemination of this transmission is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please immediately notify the sender by reply e-mail or phone and delete this message and its attachments, if any.
We asked our universities to work together, but the lead is University of Idaho, which has a modeling center: https://imci.uidaho.edu/get-involved/about-cmci/
We are asking them to take on the role of working with individual cities, counties, etc, so we don’t get overwhelmed; they worked to create a state model for us but we don’t want to get hammered with requests from so many jurisdictions. Looks like they will be agreeing to take on that role for the state!!
Chris
Christine Hahn, MD
Idaho Division of Public Health
Idaho Department of Health and Welfare
(208) 334-5939
Christine.hahn@dhw.idaho.gov<mailto:Christine.hahn@dhw.idaho.gov>
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